Guest blogging purely for inbound links is a flawed strategy because the value of those links are going down. However, guest blogging for traffic is still an incredibly viable strategy. While that inbound link you get at the end of a guest post doesn’t have as much SEO value as it used to, it still has the value of exposing your content to a new audience.
That’s true Thomas – this can happen when going after very competitive keywords. To avoid that you can just grab the first subpage you see ranking – subpages most of the time won’t have a lot of brand searches associated with them/you’ll see true topic value. It may be lower than normal, but in general can’t hurt to have a passive calculation when making arguments of what you might achieve.